It says at the most recent count 44% of Britons would vote to leave the EU, 33% would vote to stay in, 19% would say they didn’t know, and 5% wouldn’t vote (that number is definitely lowballed, by the way – a referendum on Europe would receive a lot less than 95% turnout.
Luckily I don’t think the Tories will honour their commitment to have a referendum, or at least won’t be in power to be able to fulfill their promise.
Also, the Labour lead is now at 13%. Which is all to the good, and would probably result in a Labour majority, I think.
The Scottish independence referendum looks very tight too, worryingly. Mostly looking like they’ll vote for Devo Max. I really hope they don’t abandon us to the Tories forever.
Scottish independence will seal my decision to leave the country, I think. Might well move to Glasgow but I’m not fan of the SNP – or of getting grief for being English up there, even if I’m Scouse which is barely English anyway, right?
The Lib Dem collapse that is sure to come at the General Election will help Labour is Lab-Lib marginals, but harm them in Con-Lib marginals like Eastleigh. This is all mitigated I think by the rise of UKIP. If it’s not just a fad, or an electoral blip then this will siphon votes away from the Right – a political spectrum in Britain that has been shockingly uniform for over a century now.
Think on average what looks like the new political order benefits Labour.
I’ve also lost my hope to see Yvette Cooper as the Prime Minister. Her gutless triangulation with the Tories over immigration is demoralising, and genuinely made me consider leaving the Party.